Marketing planning and forecasting sales potential

For the first question we had to estimate the market potential and sales potential for the brand that we chose. I used the build-up approach to estimate the market potential and sales potential for the brand Amstel. The most popular costumer of Amstel are cafés. In 2015 there were 12,835 cafés/bars in the Netherlands (Euromonitor, 2016). The market share of Amstel in 2015 was 9.2%. So if around 9.2% of the bars sell Amstel, then 1180 bars sell Amstel. The last years the brand share of Amstel decreased. It started with 10.6% in 2012. Then it decreased with 0.2% so in 2013 it was 10.4%. Then from 2013 to 2014 it decreased with 0.6%, and from 2014 to 2015 again a decrease of 0.6%. The average of these numbers is 0.46%, so the sales potential in 2015 will probably be 8.7%. This means that 1116 bars will sell Amstel in 2016. If each bar sells about 60000 glasses of Amstel a year, then the market potential will be 66960000 glasses of Amstel a year. (Euromonitor, 2016)

Secondly I had to give valid reason why Heineken should write a marketing plan for the Dutch market, and also a reason why they shouldn't. The first reason why Heineken should write a marketing plan for Amstel in the Dutch market is because the population is growing. This means they have to find ways to sell their products to the new potential buyers. Another reason would be that they can grow even more as a company. There are several different beer brands in the Netherlands and they could find a way to get even more costumers. The last reason is because they want to keep the costumers they have now. They don’t want their costumers to go to another brand, for example Grolsch. They want to find ways to keep their costumers loyal to them. (Dibb, Simkin, Pride, & Ferrell, 2016)

But I also thought of a reason why they shouldn't make a marketing plan for the Dutch market. A reason why they should not write a marketing plan for the Dutch market is because the Netherlands is a very small country. They could better focus on bigger countries with bigger markets, like for example the US.

At last I had to choose sales forecast technique which I would use for my product. I would use the expert forecasting survey. An advantage for this technique is that you ask experts to prepare your sales forecast. This is their expertise, so they will be very useful for the forecast. Another advantage is that it is not very expensive to ask questions concerning sales forecast to the experts. A disadvantage may be that the experts do not work for your company, so they may be less motivated than company personnel. Another disadvantage is that they can never be certain about what is going to happen to the company in the future, so you may be thinking that they are experts, but they can’t predict the future. (Dibb, Simkin, Pride, & Ferrell, 2016)

Bibliography

Dibb, S., Simkin, L., Pride, W. M., & Ferrell, O. (2016). Marketing Concepts and Strategies (7th ed.). China: RR Donnelley.

Euromonitor. (2016, June 7). Beer in the Netherlands. Retrieved October 19, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab

Euromonitor. (2016, May 9). Cafés/Bars in the Netherlands. Retrieved October 19, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab

Marketing in international markets and globalization

The brand Amstel is a international brand. The manufacturer of the brand Amstel is Heineken and the level of international involvement of Heineken is Global marketing. This means that they are totally global orientated. Global marketing occurs when marketing strategies are developed for the entire world to enable competition globally. Heineken is one of the biggest beer manufacturers in the world, and is sold in almost every country. The product Amstel is available in over 80 countries, with markets in Greece, The Netherlands, South Africa, Spain, Hungary, the UK, Switzerland Portugal and many more. (Kochan, 2016)

Here are some market shares of Amstel in Greece and Spain:

Beer shares in Greece:

In this table you can see that Amstel has the biggest brand share in Greece. But you can also see that the brand share of Amstel has decreased by 11% from 2011 to 2014. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (Euromonitor, 2016)                                                                                                       




Beer shares in Spain:
In this table you can see that Amstel has around 7% of the brand shares in Spain. The brand with the biggest brand share, which is Cruzcampo, is from the same manufacturer as Amstel, Heineken NV.

                                                                                     (Euromonitor, 2016)

          

Heineken uses different market entry strategies to penetrate foreign market. To enter the market of the US, Heineken used the market strategy exporting because it had a low risk and cost. To enter the market of Asia, Heineken used the market strategy joint venture. They had a partnership with Frasere & Neave and became Malayan Breweries. (The Finance Director, 2012)

There can be found evidence of impact of the recent international turmoil on the company of my product, Heineken. The Brexit has impact on the company Heineken, because of the Brexit large beer brewers like Heineken will have to shift its business models from imported to licensed beer depending on the positioning and consumer perception of the brand (Mortimer, 2016). Also the Ebola virus in Africa had an impact on Heineken. The unit of Heineken in Sierra Leone had to fire staff and stop the expansion plans worth about 12 million dollars. A spokes said that sales had dropped 70 per cent in October, which is risky for the supply chain. (OECD iLibrary, 2015)

At last I found some legal forces that have an impact on the marketing position of your product. The following three have an impact on the marketing position:

The beer industry players have to follow the advertising norms. These show the content and hours when beer advertisements may be broadcasted to minimize instances of underage drinking. America also has a control system that separates players into manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, and they are not allowed to sell beer directly to the public. The tax code divides brewers according to their size, with small brewers that produce up to two million barrels per year and the large brewers any amount above it, although taxes are paid on every barrel that is produced. (Lowrie, 2016)

                                                                                               

Bibliography

Euromonitor. (2016). Beer in Greece. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab

Euromonitor. (2016). Beer in Spain. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab

Kochan, N. (2016). The World's Greatest Brands. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from Google Books: https://books.google.nl/books?id=LDqvCwAAQBAJ&pg=PT8&lpg=PT8&dq=international+brand+amstel&source=bl&ots=dc4fG1fdDM&sig=3RIDrHHhq4M5STDAY9O2T0g6tqw&hl=nl&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjg8enfx9XPAhXCDcAKHUJxC5QQ6AEIVTAJ#v=onepage&q=international%20brand%20amstel&f=false

Lowrie, L. (2016). Beer Industry Legal & Political Factors. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from Small Business: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/beer-industry-legal-political-factors-75952.html

Mortimer, N. (2016, July 25). Why Brexit could boost craft beer but hurt big beer businesses. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from The Drum: http://www.thedrum.com/news/2016/07/25/why-brexit-could-boost-craft-beer-hurt-big-beer-businesses

OECD iLibrary. (2015). The Ebola Crisis in West Africa: Implications for Trade and Regional Integration. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from OECD iLibrary: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/5js4t73pl5mt.pdf?expires=1476307755&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=DA483E97D2AC68AA254F288C5A1F2AD0

The Finance Director. (2012, May 18). Heineken: An acquired taste. Retrieved October 12, 2016, from The Finance Director: http://www.the-financedirector.com/features/featureheineken-rene-hooft-graafland-high-growth-markets-acquisitions-expansion

Environmental Analysis

First we had to look at the press clippings and annual report of our product and indicate the environmental factors that have a major impact on the marketing policies. Because the head office of the brand Amstel is Heineken, I looked at the website of Heineken and their annual report. On the Heineken N.V. 2016 half year results, Jean-François van Boxmeer, CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board comments that the performance on the markets of Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe remained challenging. On the other hand, the performance on the key developing markets like Vietnam and Mexico was really strong. So the competition has a major impact on the marketing policies. “We are convinced that our well-balanced global footprint, sustained investment in brands and innovation, and focus on the premium segment continue to give us a unique competitive advantage to win in our markets.’’ (Heineken, 2016)

Also social and cultural forces have a major impact on the marketing policies. Because through social and cultural forces thought patterns and lifestyles will be influenced, which can be a disadvantage for a company as Heineken. If for example your lifestyle includes to drink another beer brand, then it is a disadvantage for Heineken, so it impact the marketing policies of Heineken.

Then I found two tables on CBS Statline that give relevant data about the external environment for my product. I found the following tables:

In the table Population; sex, age and nationality there is information about which nationalities live in the Netherlands. This can be important because in some cultures it is not allowed or no habit to drink alcohol, so these nationalities have impact on the consumption of Amstel. (CBS Statline, 2015)

In the table Consumer prices; price index there is information of the CPI over the years for different beers. This is important because the CPI shows the change of price over time, and the change of price is very important for the competitive position of the company. (CBS Statline, 2016)

At last I had to look at the influence of the social, cultural and religious differences in the Netherlands on the brand Amstel. In the Netherlands there are quite a lot of social, cultural and religious differences. You have several religions in the Netherlands, like for example Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism etc. These all have influence on the consumption of the product Amstel, because in most religions it is not allowed to drink alcohol, so they don’t even consume any Amstel. There are also a lot of different cultures in the Netherlands, which also influence the consumption of Amstel, because in some cultures it is not allowed to drink. But in the Dutch culture it is very normal to drink a beer with friends, family, when going out or sitting at a restaurant, so this has a good influence on the consumption of Amstel. The social differences in the Netherlands also influence the consumption, because older people may drink less alcohol than younger people. (CountryReports, 2016)

Bibliography

CBS Statline. (2015, August 12). Population; sex, age and nationality, 1 January. Retrieved October 10, 2016, from CBS Statline: http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?DM=SLEN&PA=03743ENG&D1=1&D2=119-125&D3=a&D4=17-19&LA=EN&VW=T

CBS Statline. (2016, October 6). Consumer prices; price index 2015=100. Retrieved October 10, 2016, from CBS Statline: http://statline.cbs.nl/Statweb/publication/?DM=SLEN&PA=83131eng&D1=0-1,4-5&D2=78-81&D3=(l-39)-l&LA=EN&VW=T

CountryReports. (2016). Netherlands Facts and Culture. Retrieved October 10, 2016, from CountryReports: http://www.countryreports.org.saxion.idm.oclc.org/country/Netherlands/facts.htm

Heineken. (2016, August 1). Heineken N.V. reports 2016 half year results. Retrieved October 10, 2016, from The Heineken Company: http://www.theheinekencompany.com/media/media-releases/press-releases/2016/08/2032068