Marketing planning and forecasting sales potential

For the first question we had to estimate the market potential and sales potential for the brand that we chose. I used the build-up approach to estimate the market potential and sales potential for the brand Amstel. The most popular costumer of Amstel are cafés. In 2015 there were 12,835 cafés/bars in the Netherlands (Euromonitor, 2016). The market share of Amstel in 2015 was 9.2%. So if around 9.2% of the bars sell Amstel, then 1180 bars sell Amstel. The last years the brand share of Amstel decreased. It started with 10.6% in 2012. Then it decreased with 0.2% so in 2013 it was 10.4%. Then from 2013 to 2014 it decreased with 0.6%, and from 2014 to 2015 again a decrease of 0.6%. The average of these numbers is 0.46%, so the sales potential in 2015 will probably be 8.7%. This means that 1116 bars will sell Amstel in 2016. If each bar sells about 60000 glasses of Amstel a year, then the market potential will be 66960000 glasses of Amstel a year. (Euromonitor, 2016)

Secondly I had to give valid reason why Heineken should write a marketing plan for the Dutch market, and also a reason why they shouldn't. The first reason why Heineken should write a marketing plan for Amstel in the Dutch market is because the population is growing. This means they have to find ways to sell their products to the new potential buyers. Another reason would be that they can grow even more as a company. There are several different beer brands in the Netherlands and they could find a way to get even more costumers. The last reason is because they want to keep the costumers they have now. They don’t want their costumers to go to another brand, for example Grolsch. They want to find ways to keep their costumers loyal to them. (Dibb, Simkin, Pride, & Ferrell, 2016)

But I also thought of a reason why they shouldn't make a marketing plan for the Dutch market. A reason why they should not write a marketing plan for the Dutch market is because the Netherlands is a very small country. They could better focus on bigger countries with bigger markets, like for example the US.

At last I had to choose sales forecast technique which I would use for my product. I would use the expert forecasting survey. An advantage for this technique is that you ask experts to prepare your sales forecast. This is their expertise, so they will be very useful for the forecast. Another advantage is that it is not very expensive to ask questions concerning sales forecast to the experts. A disadvantage may be that the experts do not work for your company, so they may be less motivated than company personnel. Another disadvantage is that they can never be certain about what is going to happen to the company in the future, so you may be thinking that they are experts, but they can’t predict the future. (Dibb, Simkin, Pride, & Ferrell, 2016)

Bibliography

Dibb, S., Simkin, L., Pride, W. M., & Ferrell, O. (2016). Marketing Concepts and Strategies (7th ed.). China: RR Donnelley.

Euromonitor. (2016, June 7). Beer in the Netherlands. Retrieved October 19, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab

Euromonitor. (2016, May 9). Cafés/Bars in the Netherlands. Retrieved October 19, 2016, from Euromonitor: http://www.portal.euromonitor.com.saxion.idm.oclc.org/portal/analysis/tab